The Institute for Economic Justice (IEJ) warns that modest improvements in GDP and public finances mask deep structural challenges. Millions remain unemployed, poverty and hunger are rising, and women carry the brunt of unpaid care work.

Liso Mdutyana, Tax and Budget Policy Researcher at IEJ, said the country cannot treat the economic uptick as an achievement. “While GDP growth is modestly up, millions of South Africans are still excluded from meaningful work. Growth alone does not translate into better lives.”

Statistics South Africa reports the official unemployment rate at 31.9% as of September 2025. The expanded rate, which includes discouraged workseekers, is 42.4%, leaving roughly 12.5 million people without jobs. About 40–45% of young people are not in employment, education, or training.

“The labour market is not creating enough jobs to keep up with population growth,” Mdutyana said. “Marginally better performance in commodities or finance does not change the reality that millions remain excluded from the economy.”

Women face additional barriers, with a narrow unemployment rate of 35.9%. Many perform unpaid care work caring for children and the elderly, fetching water and firewood, and preparing food, work largely invisible in economic statistics. Cuts to public services have increased this burden.

Poverty and food insecurity remain alarmingly high. StatsSA data show 66.7% of South Africans live below the upper-bound poverty line, rising from 39.1 million in 2015 to 40.8 million in 2023. Severe food insecurity has increased to eight million, with households with children most affected. Social grants provide limited relief.

“The child support grant, at R560 per child, falls short of the cost of a basic nutritious diet,” Mdutyana said. “The SRD grant of R370 covers less than half of the food poverty line. Without a stronger social safety net, many gains from economic growth will be lost.”

IEJ says the government has a narrow window to turn modest economic improvements into structural transformation. This includes jobs-intensive growth in manufacturing, construction, and agro-processing, increased public investment in infrastructure and social services, and more progressive taxation.

“Stabilisation in electricity, freight, and ports is welcome, but it is not enough,” Mdutyana said. “The government must adopt policies that ensure ordinary South Africans actually see benefits from economic growth. The 2026 SONA is a chance to set that agenda.”